The fine art of bad timing

Only a few weeks ago I added to the bloggerati chorus of proclaiming Gordon Brown's slow death and his sure replacement in 2010 by the smarmy Blairesque David Cameron. When election day comes two years from now, the Tories are still overwhelmingly likely to win. But David Davis' bizarre resignation as an MP over the issue of detaining terror suspects for up to 42 days has, at least in the short term, hurt Cameron badly. Before Cameron's sudden and shocking rise at the 2005 Conservative Party Conference, and Davis' limp performance at the same conference, he was the hot favourite to replace Michael Howard as leader of the party (although it should be noted that many commentators had always contended that appointing Davis as leader would be foolish).

After Cameron won the 2005 contest by two to one, he appeased Davis by making him Shadow Home Secretary. Davis' current behaviour is a poor repayment for this generosity. His resignation has made the party look weak, and while he was undoubtedly right on this issue he has alienated the Sun-reading Thatcherite core of the party. What's more, it's a bit rich for a man who opposed the repeal of Section 28 (which allowed local government to promote homosexual relationships in schools) and is a proven social conservative to style himself as a libertarian. Davis allowed Gordon Brown to score his first press victory in months and the Tories' poll lead has slipped by seven points. With potentially two years left for the general election Cameron need not start panicking again. But he might well decide that to distance himself from such a master of bad timing would be a wise course.